The Famous Cosmological Bet between Stephen Hawkings and Kip Thorne

You probably didn’t know about the famous bet on Cygnus X-1. There is a 95% chance that Cygnus X-1 was the first black hole to be identified. It was a crucial time for Stephen Hawking as this was the time to prove his theory.

But Hawking’s character is quite complex to understand. He instead made a bet with Kip Thorne of Caltech, that Cygnus X-1 does not contain a black hole. 

Initially the bet was that, If Cygnus X-1 would turn out to be a black hole, Stephen would offer a year’s subscription to Penthouse. But if not, Thorne would give Hawking a four year subscription to the magazine Private Eye. 

But This is not the main question. The most confusing point is, Why would Hawking do that if it had to benefit him?

Well, Hawking is not called a genius just for his amazing theories only. He referred to this as his ‘insurance policy’. If Cygnus X-1 was not a black hole, all his theories and time would have turned out to be a waste, but still he would have a consolation and satisfaction of winning the bet. If it was the other way around, his theory would be proved to be right, thus proving his career to be successful and then losing the bet wouldn’t matter to him. 

As you might have already guessed, Stephen Hawking lost the bet and Kip Thorne was finally provided with the Penthouse subscription as promised.